Part 1
The Crisis
How irrigated cotton is draining the Ogallala, destroying topsoil, losing money, spiking the grid — and billing you $2 billion a year for it.
Water
The Ogallala is being pumped to death
2.5 million irrigated acres of cotton pull 300–400 billion gallons per year from the Ogallala. The aquifer recharges at 0.5–1 inch per year. Cotton demands 12–24 inches.
Wells across the region have declined to 3–4 gallons per minute — the functional death spiral. At current depletion rates, large portions of the Southern Ogallala will be economically unrecoverable within 20–30 years.
Cotton uses more water in two weeks than every data center in Texas uses in a year. 8–16x more water. Zero public outrage.
Texas Water Development Board, USDA NASS, HARC / University of Houston (2025)
Soil
11 tons of topsoil per acre. Every year. Blowing away.
Cotton erosion rate: ~11 tons per acre per year — more than double the USDA maximum tolerable loss of 5 t/ac/yr. Only ~18% of Texas cotton is no-till. 60% is still conventional tillage.
After harvest, bare ground sits exposed to High Plains wind all winter. Texas averages 14 tons of soil loss per acre annually — one of the 8 worst states. An inch of topsoil takes 500–1,000 years to form.
11
t/ac/yr cotton erosion
Double the tolerable limit
5
t/ac/yr USDA max
The line nobody should cross
Field to Market, USDA NRCS, PNAS (Montgomery 2007)
Economics
A crop that loses money and survives on your taxes
Gross revenue: ~$350–400/acre. Total costs (irrigated): $400–500/acre. Breakeven requires $0.80+/lb cotton; market is below $0.70. Net return: negative to zero.
74%
TX cotton lost
2022 crop
$3B
Insurance payout
2022, your taxes
37–50%
Abandoned
2023–24 High Plains
-$50
Net per acre
After all costs
Texas A&M AgriLife 2025 Budgets, USDA NASS, USDA RMA, National Cotton Council
Follow the money
You are paying $2 billion a year to destroy your own water supply.
Crop insurance payouts
$3 BILLION in 2022 alone
$600M–$1.5B/yr
Premium subsidies (govt pays 62%)
You pay most of their premiums
$300–$400M/yr
Price Loss Coverage / Title I
Taxpayer check when prices drop
$100–$250M/yr
Disaster & emergency programs
Every drought year, like clockwork
$150–$450M/yr
State ag tax exemption gap
$3,000/acre land taxed at $200
$200–$400M/yr
Your annual bill
~$2 billion/year
Texas has collected $51.7 billionin federal farm subsidies since 1995 — #1 in the nation. Cotton is the single largest driver.
EWG Farm Subsidy Database, USDA RMA, Texas Comptroller
Grid
Cotton irrigation peaks exactly when ERCOT is most stressed
Cotton irrigation pumps peak June through August — exactly when ERCOT is begging Texans to turn off their AC. Energy input: ~$64/acre. Seasonal, unpredictable, grid-crushing load.
Data centers run flat 24/7/365 baseload — predictable, plannable, grid-friendly. Tell me again which one is “jacking up utility bills.”
USDA ERS, EIA, ERCOT